Orange juice situation worsens - no relief in sight
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After initial forecasts in May, there is now certainty: orange juice concentrate is becoming scarce worldwide. "We are in the most difficult situation for more than 50 years. With the crop failures in the USA and the historically low stocks in Brazil, a hitherto unique market situation has developed as a result of which the availability of orange juice concentrate is currently massively limited", is how Klaus Heitlinger, Managing Director of the Association of the German Fruit Juice Industry, describes the situation.
"It is becoming apparent that the massive shortage will lead to a significant increase in the price of orange juice concentrate; clear trends can already be seen on the world market," Heitlinger continues. If there are no record harvests in Brazil and the USA next year to replenish stocks, this tense situation will not change much.
Weather extremes and plant disease cause tense market situation
In Brazil - the world's largest producer of orange juice concentrate and the most important EU supplier with a 90 per cent market share - weak to average harvests in recent years have led to sharply declining stocks.
By the end of June 2023, stocks had fallen to practically zero. It is becoming apparent that the current 2023/2024 harvest will also be weak again. This is due to persistently bad weather, which means that stocks cannot be replenished for the time being.
In the USA, the harvest expectation is around 16 million boxes, 62 per cent below last season's harvest, which was already very low at 41 million boxes.
The market experts speak of an almost total crop failure due to hurricanes and the preparation of citrus greening, a plant disease that strongly affects growth and fruiting, up to the death of the affected trees.
Unfortunately, Mexico and Spain are not able to relieve the tense market situation either, as the crop yields here are also below average due to the weather. In Mexico, the harvest volume has fallen by 35 percent compared to average years.
